Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, political struggles are conducted: optimistic declarations are released from different nations. Immense energy is allocated on restraining specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from across the border, a ability enabled by up-to-date information. From observation points, defense planes that had been deployed to counter approaching guided weapons roared overhead – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: defensive missiles targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably delivered by partner states. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly gives way to sober acceptance: possibly the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from devastation and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a automatic firearm fired at a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its objective.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: multiple fatalities, damage and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a dependence that European nations are demonstrably unable to fill in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from American leadership generated strong feelings, debate and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new approach from US leadership unfolds according to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, undoubtedly, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame certain parties of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership operates on a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government believes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to abandon the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does little to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from believing that the current condition will not change more in its benefit in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding people and territory but averting a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its favour.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: personal goals to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to terminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new plans based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect certain reluctance to modify developments, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, mainly require sustained allied backing.
