Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the country and caused disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed here and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
